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Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
$40.4M volume$153.5K today$396.2K liquidityEnds Dec 31, 12:00 AM
Selected contract
China invade Taiwan by
No
96%
Probability history
96%No
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Market depth
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Rules and resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
- Provider
- polymarket
- Market reference
- 0xd9fb1184af0064e5e34b129f5b79afa5a17b7e32f2953ab05efed82315fee6d4