Event room
Open
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
$4.9M volume$757 today$83.5K liquidityEnds Jan 1, 05:00 AM
Selected contract
Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026
No
95%
Probability history
95%No
Loading verified history…
Market depth
Exact selected outcome token
Loading market depth…
Rules and resolution
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction at any time between January 9, 2026, 1:00 PM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.
- Provider
- polymarket
- Market reference
- 0x3b0107a80edd066fe987784d7ab5963c177888433efbec10689951c17320606c