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Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
$60.0M volume$56.1K today$893.9K liquidityEnds Dec 31, 12:00 AM
Selected contract
U.S. invade Iran before 2027
No
85%
Probability history
85%No
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Market depth
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Rules and resolution
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
- Provider
- polymarket
- Market reference
- 0x5db999fad322cea2914535aae5517060c3f80ad6d8c0231cde2124a434d16846